Backtest performance
The model is evaluated walk-forward: each completed game is predicted from ratings available before that game, then ratings are updated chronologically.
Matches
73
Log loss
0.589
Brier
0.202
Accuracy
67.1%
Tuned parameters
Grid search selected homeElo=60, K=32, temperature=0.9 by holdout log loss with Brier tiebreak.
Generated 2026-06-09T09:36:14.941Z from ESPN Core API data.